刘天;黄继贵;宋开发;王丽;姚梦雷;刘予希;

• 1:荆州市疾病预防控制中心

摘要(Abstract)：

目的分析2013-2017年荆州市流行性腮腺炎(流腮)的空间聚集性特征。方法通过中国传染病报告信息管理系统收集2013-2017年荆州市流腮发病率资料,进行趋势面、Kriging插值、全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关分析。结果 2013-2017年荆州市流腮发病率在6.72/10万(2014年)-14.30/10万(2017年)之间(趋势χ2=14.19,P=0.000)。趋势面分析显示发病率由南向北逐渐升高,东西方向呈中间高、两头低趋势。Kriging插值显示发病率以北部地区高、南部地区低。全局空间自相关分析显示,2013年(Moran's I=0.0324,P=0.484)和2014年(Moran's I=0.0401,P=0.476)发病率无空间自相关性;2015-2017年存在空间正相关(Moran's I>0,P<0.05)。局部空间自相关分析显示2013-2017年流腮平均发病率有2个H-H聚集区域,各年份H-H聚集区域存在差异。结论荆州市流腮发病具有明显空间聚集性,需重点关注高发区并采取针对性防控措施。

关键词(KeyWords)： 流行性腮腺炎;趋势面;Kriging插值;空间自相关

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 刘天;黄继贵;宋开发;王丽;姚梦雷;刘予希;

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